Trading enthusiasm in the night session tin market slightly subsided, while spot market transaction activity remained constrained by high prices [SMM Tin Morning Brief].

SMM Tin Morning Brief on November 14, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2512) saw its high market sentiment slightly fade during the night session. After opening, tin prices fell with reduced positions and later maintained a high-level sideways trend, closing at 294,500 yuan/mt, down 0.74% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) According to The Wall Street Journal, AMD has been a competitor of Nvidia since the AI boom began. If the company's revenue and market share forecasts remain unchanged, its influence will significantly increase in the coming years. AMD stated that it expects its AI chip sales to grow at an annual rate of 80% in the coming years and estimates that by 2030, the company should capture a double-digit market share in the area where Nvidia currently holds a near-monopoly. AMD estimates that the entire AI chip market will be worth $1 trillion over the next five years, with the company's sales exceeding $100 billion. The company also hinted that gross margins would remain at relatively healthy levels, despite its investments in developing new chips and complex computing systems. Many investors and AI chip customers hope for a true competitor to Nvidia, and AMD certainly believes it is brewing such a challenge. (2) The special meeting "Global Power Battery Forward-Looking Technology and Innovation Forum" of the 2025 World Power Battery Conference was held in Yibin, Sichuan. Wang Fang, Chief Scientist of the China Automotive Technology and Research Center, stated in her speech that it is currently necessary to clarify the basic content related to solid-state batteries, such as terminology, classification, and coding. "We are formulating corresponding national standards. In terminology and classification, batteries are divided into three categories: solid-state batteries, solid-liquid hybrid batteries, and liquid batteries." (3) From November 12 to 13, the 2025 World Power Battery Conference was held in Yibin City, Sichuan Province. Xin Guobin stated that electrification technology is penetrating from automobiles to engineering machinery, ships, aircraft, robots, and other fields, and the power battery industry has broad development prospects. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will continue to promote the high-quality development of the power battery industry. First, strengthen strategic guidance by formulating the "15th Five-Year Plan" for intelligent connected NEVs and new-type battery industry development, clarifying development goals and key tasks. Second, expand application scenarios by promoting the wider use of power batteries in related fields, supporting innovations in battery swapping models and pilot projects for vehicle-grid interaction, and advancing the coordinated development of NEVs and smart infrastructure. Third, improve the governance system by refining the interim measures for the comprehensive utilization of power batteries, researching and establishing a carbon management policy system for power batteries, and further regulating industry competition order. Fourth, broaden cooperation space by creating a first-class market-oriented, law-based, and international business environment, accelerating rule alignment and standard coordination, and creating conditions for high-quality international exchanges and cooperation.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Overall tin ore supply is tightening in major producing regions like Yunnan. Most smelters are expected to maintain relatively stable production in November. (2) Demand side: Orders have decreased significantly due to weak demand in the consumer electronics and home appliance markets. Downstream procurement remains cautious, with high prices noticeably suppressing actual consumption. Limited boost from emerging sectors: Although the increase in AI computing power and growth in PV installations have driven some tin consumption, their current contribution scale remains small and insufficient to offset the decline in consumption from traditional sectors.

Spot market: Tin prices remained high yesterday, climbing to the 300,000 yuan mark. Although they retreated slightly during the night session, overall prices stayed around 295,000 yuan/mt. Downstream enterprises showed low acceptance and largely suspended procurement activities, with most traders reporting virtually no transactions.

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